US-Israel vs Iran War: Looking ahead
Date: March 1,202
By Watchmanpost International Desk
In the aftermath of the successful neutralisation of Iran’s self-styled Supreme Leader, President Donald Trump says he knows who he would like to lead Iran going forward. But with ongoing exchange of fire, and likely Congressional halting of hostilities since Trump did not obtain prior legislative approval for the war, what are likely immediate scenarios in the conflict. WatchmanPost International Desk volunteers informed prognosis.
Situational status: Critical/rapidly evolving
The global landscape has shifted fundamentally following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening salvos of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. The situation is currently unfolding across three primary theaters:
1. Succession challenge
Under Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, a temporary Leadership Council has been activated to manage the state until the Assembly of Experts can select a successor.
The Interim Council: This body currently includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Eje’i, and a rotating member of the Guardian Council. Tehran states this Council will supervise the country until a new Supreme Leader is chosen, with Ayatollah Alireza Arafi currently holding the fort as the acting national leader.
The Assembly of Experts: This 88-member clerical body is under immense pressure to elect a successor “immediately.” Top contenders include:
Mojtaba Khamenei: The late leader’s son. While influential, his appointment faces backlash from those wary of a “hereditary monarchy” appearing to replace the revolutionary republic.
Alireza Arafi: A high-ranking cleric with deep institutional support in Qom.
Power vacuum: Intelligence reports suggest friction between the IRGC, which favours a military-aligned figure to ensure national security, and the traditional clerical establishment.
2. Military status: Operations “Epic Fury” and “Roaring Lion”
The Pentagon (Operation Epic Fury) and the IDF (Operation Roaring Lion) have entered a “sustained phase” of their campaign.
Strike Intensity: Over 1,200 munitions were deployed by joint U.S.-Israeli forces, Saturday. Beyond the Supreme Leader, reports indicate “decapitation strikes” may have claimed Iran’s Chief of Army Staff and Minister of Defense. By Sunday, Israeli aircraft sought total control of Iranian airspace while maintaining a heavy bombardment of targets inside Tehran, the Iranian capital.
Iranian retaliation: The IRGC has initiated “Operation Truthful Promise 4,” launching ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Manama (Bahrain), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Fresh explosions were confirmed in Dubai and Doha this (Sunday) morning. The retaliatory strikes have already claimed six lives in central Israel.
U.S. Escalation: President Trump warned today that any further counter-attacks will be met with “force that has never been seen before.” This comes as the administration links current hostilities to prior Iranian-backed attempts on Trump’s life during his campaign and the historical killing of American servicemen overseas.
3. Domestic unrest, global reactions
The mandatory “40 days of mourning” has laid bare deep internal fractures:
Internal dissent: While state media broadcasts massive mourning ceremonies, independent social media footage shows residents in Tehran and Kurdish regions celebrating on rooftops. This tallies with what an analyst said today on Al Jazeera: There are millions in Iran who hate this regime, and there are other millions who support it.
The exiled opposition: Reza Pahlavi has urged the Iranian military to defect and support a transition to a secular government. Whether this will happen remains to be seen.
Geopolitical fallout: Global oil prices have spiked to historic highs. At the UN Security Council, the U.S. and Iran exchanged direct, high-level warnings.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has reportedly authorised retaliatory strikes against Iran for violating its sovereignty by targeting American bases on her soil. The duo has longstanding ideological stands.
Strategic Outlook
The IRGC has described this moment as the start of a “great uprising against tyrants,” signaling a potential move to consolidate power over the clerical class. However, the internal contradictions of clerical corruption, the suppression of minority rights, and the bloody crackdown on the January protesters have alienated many ordinary Iranians from the Islamic hegemony.
Key questions:
Proxies: Will a weakened Hezbollah or the Houthis launch global retaliatory strikes against U.S. and Israeli interests?
Allies: Will Russia (bogged down in Ukraine) or China intervene? Significant military aid remains unlikely given their current preoccupations.
Stability: Can the clerical class maintain control, or will the IRGC transition Iran into a de facto military junta? The days ahead will show what the answer is.
The “Red Line”: With an Iranian official claiming Trump has crossed a “very dangerous red line,” will the US President’s domestic backlash from Congress over a lack of war powers authorisation impact the mission’s longevity?
